The following demand for business and housing is anticipated for Auckland over the next 30 years (2016-2046) [see note 1].
Business land demand
business land and floorspace is an important consideration in planning for growth. The table below shows the anticipated medium and long term floorspace demand by location.
Anticipated medium and long term floor space demand (in floor space sqm)
Source: Housing and Business Development Capacity Assessment, Appendix C - Business land demand and supply, Market Economics, 2017, Figures 3-7 and 3-8)
Modelling indicates that in the short to medium term the urban north gets close to capacity in consuming business floor space.
These figures do not account for the levels of business land anticipated in the
future urban areas as these areas develop. This will add business land supply in the north, north-west and south.
Flexible and adaptable business areas
The following demand for housing is anticipated over the next 30 years (2016-2046).
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Anticipated medium and long term housing demand (in number of dwellings)
Source: Auckland Council 2018
Note: Within this table medium term includes short and medium term. Long term combines short, medium and long term. This is consistent with guidance on calculating targets for the National Policy Statement on Urban Development Capacity.
The current level of feasible development capacity exceeds demand in the medium term (1-10 years). However, over the long term (11-30 years), based on current assumptions, there is a shortfall of around 82,000 dwellings.
The long term shortfall is expected to be met in the following ways:
Housing New Zealand
Expect current levels of development on Housing New Zealand owned land to continue into decades two and three. This will provide 12,500 to 25,000 extra dwellings per decade.
KiwiBuild and later central government programmes
Estimate providing up to 25,000 extra dwellings per decade. The aim is to de-risk larger development sites and speed up delivery.
Panuku Development Auckland
Expect approximately 5000 additional dwellings per decade to result from direct development actions by Panuku.
In addition, other factors are expected to deliver additional dwellings.
Long term, land values are anticipated to appreciate at a faster rate than other building costs i.e. labour and materials. Existing developments are also expected to depreciate. This is expected to result in improved feasibility of more intensive redevelopment. This is particularly in locations well serviced by public transport.
The combined actions of council and central government, together with the market will deliver improved accessibility, amenity and new development. These are all expected to lead to further interest, market confidence and development opportunities.
- The National Policy Statement on Urban Development Capacity 2016: Housing and business development capacity assessment for Auckland 2017